Thinking about Tomorrow, Acting Today: The Future of Climate Mobility
While there has been considerable progress in understanding the biophysical impacts of global warming across the world in coming decades, there are high uncertainties about how human mobility patterns will respond to these disruptions. Most statistical models indicate that certain climate-related factors have some effect on migration; however, there is no consensus on how strong that effect is or, in some cases, even whether the effect is positive or negative.
Advanced statistical techniques and higher quality mobility data can help to move towards consensus; however, fully grasping the implications of climate change and human mobility now and in the future requires a new perspective that zooms into the specific processes and dynamics of individual contexts.